Shorter term look at the S&P 500

I decided to take a shorter term look at the S&P 500 index. I am not convinced, by a long shot, that this bear is dead yet. I know that a chart can be spun in almost any manner to demonstrate a clear outcome in any direction... I am not trying to spin, I am just looking at the facts. My opinion can be as wrong as the next person's.

Here is the chart from my last post:

The positive convergence looks convincing given that the price trend SEEMS to be broken.

and here is the more current shorter term outlook:

On the zoom there is a whole new set of lines to study. I think the most important is the reduction in volume and the increase in price. The MACD really does not fall into my studies anymore but it was on the default so I used it. I think that the slow creeping up of the price on lower and lower daily volume leads one to consider the market sentiment at work here. If everyone were in the groove of a full on bull move here, even though it has been a good rally, I would expect the volume to be increasing or at least quite high The price is still in the high volume price zone but with volume lessening there may not be enough buying pressure in the underlying stocks to drive this move higher in the long run.

I must admit that the volume is still higher than it was a year ago, but a year ago the market was still in decline, here is the chart for that particular move:

If this were a minute chart for intraday trading I would be getting ready for a short as the price approached the 200sma... or perhaps long if the price should break that line.

Note here the MACD in this example is STRONGER than the current one.

Here is how that period played out:

Trading is all about pattern recognition...this one is pretty clear as everything is very close to repeating itself.

Let's see what happens as it happens.

Jeff.